Libya’s civil war

What chance for peace?

An Oxford Analytica Conference Call

Wednesday, September 23, 2020, 15.00 UK / 10.00 EDT

The tide of Libya’s civil war has turned with the failure of LNA commander Khalifar Haftar’s assault to seize Tripoli, the capital. Turkey’s decisive intervention has boosted the UN-recognised Government of National Accord (GNA), which is now eyeing an assault on Sirte in central Libya – the gateway to the country’s major oilfields.

Both sides, backed by external powers, are fortifying positions around Sirte in anticipation of a major battle. Germany and the UN, keen to prevent this, have proposed a ceasefire and a demilitarized zone (DMZ) around Sirte.  Whether this can be sustained despite the efforts of domestic and foreign spoilers is uncertain.

The fighting served to keep fractious coalitions on both sides together; now the conflict is paused, divisions are widening in the west and east. Moreover, COVID-19 is spreading unchecked and there are protests in cities in the west, east and south over deteriorating economic conditions.

Our open client call on September 23, chaired by Director of Analysis Nick Redman, will feature a panel drawn from our expert contributor network to answer your questions, including:

  • Will the factions agree to establish and maintain a DMZ?
  • How great is the threat posed by Libyan spoilers to a DMZ?
  • Would a DMZ mean the de facto partition of Libya?
  • What are the intentions of the main foreign powers—Russia, Turkey, France, Italy, Egypt and the UAE?
  • How will this affect oil exports from Libya?

Panellists

Mary Fitzgerald, Independent researcher on Libya

Tarek Megerisi, Policy Fellow, European Council on Foreign Relations 

Peter Millet, Former UK ambassador to Libya

Join Oxford Analytica’s experts for this discussion and share your questions and perspectives in our client conference call on Wednesday September 23, 15:00 UK, 10.00 EDT.