Ministry of Defence: proactive risk monitoring

Client: European Ministry of Defence


Limited ability to actively monitor and analyse relevant risks

The client is the Office of Security Policy within a European Ministry of Defence (MoD). The MoD is responsible for managing a variety of different risks, both in Europe and globally, and was looking to augment its internal analysis capabilities with inputs from external experts.


Oxford Analytica was tasked with creating a structure for the systematic monitoring of a selection of high-value risks, and for delivering insights into emerging risks outside the scope of the pre-selected group of risks. This was to help inform the scenario planning and ongoing analysis done by the client.


Phase I (Measure)

Core Risk Assessment: Oxford Analytica staff and members of its expert network conducted an on-site workshop with the client to analyse the clients' risk profile, determine which risks required mapping, the level of impact those risks possessed, and the level of control over those risks by the client. This exercise set the groundwork for the following analysis, and created a shared perception of the client’s risk profile.

Twelve bespoke briefings were then created to give the client an understanding of developing risks and their impact on the country’s or region’s wider risk profile. Focusing on emerging issues or global trends and written by members of Oxford Analytica’s expert network, these reports allowed the client to consider new or non-critical themes, as well as gauge the impact of transnational issues on the country’s risk profile.

Phase II (Monitor)

Daily Brief: This phase enabled the client to regularly assess key signposts, working assumptions, and potential vulnerabilities in countries of operation. The client monitored developments via the Daily Brief platform and expert access.

Global Risk Monitor: The client saw the profile of its bespoke risks continually updated as to how developments impacted its external security environment. The client was also able to monitor Oxford Analytica’s house view on global risks through access to the GRM.

Risk information was compiled from the Daily Brief platform and other sources, and compared against the agreed upon key risks from Phase 1 and the previous risk ratings for each risk, to create an updated exposure and clarify if the impact, likelihood, or control over the risk had changed. The client then took these risks and inputted them into its internal risk monitoring system, which integrated the client's risk scoring with Oxford Analytica's.