VAPOR Country Risk Ratings

The latest edition of our VAPOR Ratings report has been published today.

The report, driven by our unique Value at Political Risk system developed in partnership with Willis Towers Watson, reviews the latest ratings changes and provides accompanying insights from our analytical team.


Your quarterly guide to measuring and mapping political risk
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VAPOR report COVID-19 special

In this quarter’s edition of the VAPOR Report, in which Europe remains a focus, we find that COVID-19’s impact and relevance to VAPOR-related risks is now more ‘nuanced’. In the short term, ambitious monetary and fiscal policy should stabilise the euro-area economy and provide the basis for a faster recovery. However, further down the road, there is a significant risk of a rift between member states and the EU as national governments seek to protect jobs and potentially bail out companies and sectors impacted by COVID-19.

About the VAPOR Ratings

Driven by the Value at Political Risk system created in partnership with Willis Towers Watson, VAPOR Ratings offer investors and executives a unique rating based on a 12-month rolling political risk outlook for more than 160 countries.

The ratings anticipate unexpected market and country exposure as well as unpicking headline risk to highlight opportunities for well-prepared organisations. The model assesses 14 industries and five distinct political perils - political violence, expropriation, sovereign default, trade embargoes and capital controls.

Unlike generic political risk scores, each VAPOR Rating reflects a minimum and maximum expected loss due specifically to political risk factors. The VAPOR Ratings are a public-domain adaptation of the Value at Political Risk system which draws on Oxford Analytica’s proven track record of geopolitical analysis and Willis Towers Watson’s experience in modelling risk.