VAPOR Country Risk Ratings

A special edition of our VAPOR Ratings report has been published today to capture the impact of COVID-19.

The report, driven by our unique Value at Political Risk system developed in partnership with Willis Towers Watson, reviews the latest ratings changes and provides accompanying insights from our analytical team.


VAPOR report COVID-19 special

The speed with which developments are outpacing data means that analyst expertise is particularly important. The risks and opportunities identified in this edition reflect our analyst coverage as we look into the first half of 2020.

One aspect of the crisis of particular relevance to political risk is the extent to which governments are assuming emergency powers. While this is understandable in the current environment, in some countries such measures will present an opportunity to limit opposition and interfere with business and investors. Furthermore, as more countries implement tighter restrictions over longer periods, the risk of political violence will rise as populations react to shortages, displacement and unemployment.

About the VAPOR Ratings

Driven by the Value at Political Risk system created in partnership with Willis Towers Watson, VAPOR Ratings offer investors and executives a unique rating based on a 12-month rolling political risk outlook for more than 160 countries.

The ratings anticipate unexpected market and country exposure as well as unpicking headline risk to highlight opportunities for well-prepared organisations. The model assesses 14 industries and five distinct political perils - political violence, expropriation, sovereign default, trade embargoes and capital controls.

Unlike generic political risk scores, each VAPOR Rating reflects a minimum and maximum expected loss due specifically to political risk factors. The VAPOR Ratings are a public-domain adaptation of the Value at Political Risk system which draws on Oxford Analytica’s proven track record of geopolitical analysis and Willis Towers Watson’s experience in modelling risk.