American battlegrounds


Wednesday, March 25, 2020, 15:00 UK /11:00 EDT

On November 3, President Donald Trump will seek US voters’ support for a second term of office. The president’s first four years have seen plenty of the tumult that his critics feared when he first announced his candidacy for the 2016 election in June 2015.

Trump has made wide use of his office’s powers to reconfigure US diplomatic, trading and security relationships with overseas partners, including leaving the 2015 Iran nuclear deal and opening a new dialogue with North Korea.

At times, his bullish and business-oriented approach has secured results: NAFTA is in the process of being replaced with the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement, while Trump has agreed part one of a wider trade deal with China.

Meanwhile, the US economy has registered strong growth during Trump’s tenure -- although recently manufacturing and trade have faltered -- while the stock market has boomed and headline unemployment is at a multi-decade low.

But at other times, the approach has not yet yielded the results Trump wants. China has matched Trump’s widespread use of tariffs with retaliatory levies that have hit Trump’s core supporters, such as Midwestern farmers. Meanwhile, the rapprochement with North Korea is sputtering after some early promise.

At home, bipartisanship is in short supply as Republicans and Democrats remain at loggerheads over some of the most fundamental policy questions, including how to respond to calls for greener economic policies, how best to reform healthcare and how to manage immigration, among myriad other issues.

Oxford Analytica’s interactive client conference call on March 25 will feature a panel of experts to answer your questions about where and how the 2020 US elections will be won and lost, including:

  • Which states will decide who wins the presidency?
  • Does Trump have the support and means in those states to win?
  • If re-elected, what might Trump’s plans for his second term be?
  • Do the Democrats stand a realistic chance of keeping control of the House of Representatives and winning additional Senate seats?