Thomson Reuters / Ipsos Consumer sentiment

 

Extracts from the 'Consumer sentiment, politics and market' report

Consumer sentiment is one of the richest and most frequent sources of population-wide attitudes. The Thomson Reuters / IPSOS consumer sentiment survey tracks sentiment across 22 countries, 17 demographic categories, and 12 questions on a monthly basis. That provides researchers with 53,856 data points every year, with seven years of historical data for all countries. 

This report uses this data to explore some of the biggest events and themes of major economies in the past few years: the populist ‘surge’ in the United Kingdom and France in 2016-2017; youth unemployment in Europe; the 2016 US presidential election; scandal and recession in Brazil; and an ageing society in Japan.

Key findings included:

  • The Brexit vote was preceded by a drop in sentiment, which may have been caused by the uncertainty of the referendum itself.
  • While youth unemployment is associated with lower consumer sentiment among the under-35 demographic, direction of unemployment is more important than overall level.
  • The 2016 US election saw a sharp drop in the sentiment differential of consumers with high education over those with low education levels. However, those with high incomes maintained their greater optimism than those with low incomes.
  • In Brazil, sentiment around job security reflected headlines about political scandals more than a rising stock market in 2015.
  • In Japan, spending will be increasingly reflective of the oldest demographics, which are maintaining spending patterns greater than previous generations.

Oxford Analytica analysed the raw sentiment data along with Thomson Reuters using econometric analysis, input from country experts, and our internal critiquing process. We then produced a report summarising the most interesting findings. The report which was distributed at the Oxford Analytica flagship conference: Global Horizons 2017.

The research showed the wide utility of Thomson Reuters / IPSOS data, which should help promote the use of the data in more contexts.