US Politics Watch: the 2020 Presidential Election

By analysing the four potential outcomes of the election, firms can better prepare for the different regulatory outcomes each one would bring and their impact.


US Politics Watch

Oxford Analytica partnered with ING Group to develop a structured analysis of the upcoming US presidential election in 2020, examining each of the potential electoral outcomes and the likely political and economic policies that each would bring.

The full report can be accessed here: US Politics Watch: Four Scenarios for 2020 and Beyond

Latest update

In the first of a series of updates to the in-depth report, we have collaborated once again with ING Group to look at how the race is shaping up. US 2020 Election Monitor: Trump leads while Democratic front runners emerge was released in July 2019.

The scenarios

The potential outcomes of the 2020 election are presented within four scenarios:

  • United States of Trump
  • A Republican Phoenix
  • Consensus Builders Emerge
  • A New New Deal

Each scenario provides an analysis of what type of events point to them taking place, signposts of how to identify if they are taking shape, and what regulation and policy initiatives could follow post 2020 across a variety of different areas, including taxation, technology, the environment and infrastructure. By presenting the scenarios in the form of how they might happen and what it would mean if they did, ING and its clients have a concise way to evaluate the impact of current political developments and conceptualise future outcomes to prepare for different regulatory environments, helping to minimise any future disruption and improve planning.


To produce this analysis, Oxford Analytica drew upon its internal team as well as the knowledge of its expert network, making use of a team of American politics experts including Washington insiders.

While the report does not discuss the probability of each scenario occurring, as the election draws nearer and the field of candidates narrows, Oxford Analytica and ING will produce routine updates, discussing any changes in their potential impact as well as the likelihood of each scenario taking place. Our analysis helps to further guide firms in preparing for the regulatory, economic and political changes that will follow the 2020 election.