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Global Strategic Analysis

Implications of a French 'No' on the European Union

Wednesday 25th May 2005, 1700 BST / 1200 EST

The EU constitutional treaty aims to replace the 2001 Treaty of Nice, in order to provide a unified legal foundation for the European Union, to rationalize its institutions, and to delineate further the relationship between the EU and its member states. However, the constitutional treaty must be approved by all 25 current EU member states; a process that will be far from straightforward. Ten states have decided to hold referenda that inevitably risk being hijacked by non-EU issues.

Among the countries holding referenda is France, a founding member of the EU and one of its largest economies. Since mid-March 2005, opinion polls have consistently shown a strong possibility for a negative vote in the French referendum, to be held on May 29th 2005. The implications of such a rejection on both French and pan-European politics are multi-faceted and potentially far-reaching.

 

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