Turkey: Back to instability ?
Thursday 21st June, 2007
16:00 BST/11:00 EDT
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The AKP government has called early elections for July 22 in order to defuse the immediate crisis caused by the Constitutional Court’s move (encouraged by an ultimatum from the military) to annul the vote in parliament on April 27 to elect its candidate, Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul, as president. It has also proposed to reform the constitution, inter alia, to allow for the president to be directly elected by popular vote instead.
This call will ask what we can expect from the elections and what their main political, economic and foreign policy implications will be. Questions to be addressed will include:
- Is the election likely to produce another strong AKP government or require it to enter into a coalition? Will its economic record work in its favour?
- Are financial markets right to prefer such an outcome, with the risks of a return to ineffective government, over the potential risks to stability of an outright victory?
- Would a move to a directly elected president shift the balance of power in ways that could cause fresh tensions?
- What is the effect on domestic and foreign policy of receding EU hopes and rising concerns about PKK terrorism and developments in northern Iraq, notably the planned referendum on Kirkuk’s future?
- How could renewed tensions affect capital inflows and thus the current account, the lira, prices, interest rates and broader economic activity and stability?
- How will the election outcome affect economic policy and attitudes to foreign investment, privatisation, the IMF and the EU?
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