Sample analysis from the Daily Brief

The following sample feed of our analysis is drawn from The Oxford Analytica Daily Brief.® Full access to the Daily Brief delivers global analysis that gives top corporate and government executives a proven edge in predicting the course of key trends — and preparing for contingencies.

Politics and population shape house prices in China

China’s housing market will remain under tight control and prices drop further. Yet a collapse is unlikely because the market is underpinned by demand, and because officials have much of their personal wealth and income bound up with the sector.

Pakistan's Zardari faces battle for survival

President Asif Ali Zardari. Zardari is battling on several fronts to salvage his presidency. In a fast-shifting political environment, tensions are escalating between the government, Supreme Court and military.

Iran's missiles may constrain US threat response

Iranian land-based anti-ship missiles would present a clear danger to both naval and merchant vessels operating close to shore and in the narrow sea lanes of the Strait of Hormuz.

Regime likely to outlive Kim and delay reform

Kim Jung-il’s death poses a threat to the North Korean regime as power passes to the untested Kim Jung-un, but the odds are that it will survive – largely unaltered.

US housing market finding bottom but recovery slow

The post-2006 housing plunge is nearly over but recovery depends on an end to the foreclosure crisis and a fall in unemployment, which might take two more years.

Egypt vote will create fractious new parliament

Parliament will play a fundamental role in Egypt's transition to a new political system, and its recovery from the instability and economic damage caused by the January uprising.

Global 'middle-income trap' risk is overdone

Whether the developing world will continue to grow rapidly, or fall victim to a 'middle income trap', is critical for the global economy.

Weak US consumer confidence does not signal recession

Retail spending is holding up better than the consumer confidence measures supposed to drive it, reflecting a surprisingly resilient economy.

Prospects 2012: China

The lead-up to the 18th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), expected in October, will set the tone on the policy front, with caution to the fore on sensitive currency and trade issues.

Greek referendum proposal may bring down government

Papandreou's referendum announcement, now backed by his cabinet, is far more likely to lead to early elections than to a referendum.

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About the Daily Brief

Through daily dissection and analysis of fresh developments in global politics, macroeconomics and the political economy — guided by the latest academic research — the Daily Brief offers qualitative predictions and guidance as to the impact of events ‘just over the horizon’.
About The Daily Brief