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Global Strategic Analysis

Oxford Analytica gives early warning on energy

Oxford, Monday January 16, 2006

Brian de Clare (Global Energy Horizons): 3 January 2006

“Today’s major news (also highlighted in your Daily Brief -- below) was a great example of just how well your (Oxford Analytica’s) reports can act as an early warning system to the world on energy matters. Today’s news was predicted more than 6 weeks ago by Oxford Analytica….”

From the Oxford Analytica Russia/CIS Daily Brief and Europe Daily Brief

UKRAINE: Gas imports constrain Kiev's manoeuvrability

18 November 2005

“Ukraine: Gas imports constrain Kiev's maneuverability…the future for uninterrupted supplies of gas to Ukraine remains in doubt. Ukraine's dependence on imports from Turkmenistan and Russia weakens Kiev's bargaining position in gas negotiations and exposes its vulnerability to political pressure from Moscow…”

EUROPEAN UNION: Disunity hampers common energy policy

1 December 2005

“European Union: Disunity hampers common energy policy. Deepening energy problems have brought new momentum to the principle of a common energy policy. However, persistent differences between member states on many issues of substance -- as well as an underlying reluctance to transfer too much sovereignty to the EU level -- will limit the practical impact of this newfound political will…”

PROSPECTS 2006: Oil price to stay high on upside risks

2 December 2005

Oxford Analytica wrote (within its major oil market analysis).
“Russia is a cause for concern. Political uncertainty, inflation and rouble appreciation -- plus a burdensome fiscal regime -- all increase costs and reduce profitability, inhibiting production growth and discouraging further investment.

RUSSIA/UKRAINE: Gas dispute upsets Moscow's G8 image

3 January 2006

“Russia/Ukraine: Gas dispute upsets Moscow’s G8 image. EU energy ministers meet tomorrow to discuss Russia’s interruption of gas supplies to Ukraine…The shut-off, though not directly affecting supplies of Russian gas to Central and Western Europe, puts Russia’s reliability as an energy supplier to Europe in doubt. The transit of Russian gas across Ukraine is a matter of great concern to Europe.”