Analysis
The month-long election campaign has seen little real discussion on how to tackle Egypt's most pressing issues, and the general public remains largely ignorant of the parties' different positions on them. Manifestos have spoken in general terms about tackling unemployment and increasing public spending on education and healthcare, but without specifying how these measures will be financed.
Identity politics
Substantive policy debate has instead been overshadowed by other issues:
- Religion in politics. A government document proposing draft principles for the new constitution created a heated debate between the main Islamist and secular parties on the role of Islam in the new political system. The document suggested that the constitution should have a secular rather than a religious orientation. It also limited the proportion of MPs on the committee drafting the new constitution to between 5% and 10%, with the rest of the places filled by trade union representatives, constitutional experts, religious institutions and business associations. This was interpreted as an attempt to prevent Islamist parties -- who are expected to gain the most seats in the new parliament -- from being a dominant force in the constitution writing process.
- Military privileges. Secular and Islamist parties united against another clause of the document which proposed that the military budget would be exempt from parliamentary scrutiny, but would be inserted as a lump sum in any future budget bill (see EGYPT: Military interests shape transition outlook - November 1, 2011).
- Pre-election violence. Clashes erupted between protesters and security forces in Tahrir Square in the last ten days of the campaign, leaving almost 40 people dead and hundreds injured. Political campaigning was suspended and the holding of elections on schedule was called into doubt (see EGYPT: Violence raises risk of poll disruption - November 21, 2011).
Campaign tactics
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The Muslim Brotherhood is expected to win the most seats
The Muslim Brotherhood's Freedom and Justice Party staged one of the most organised campaigns, taking advantage of their nationwide network and decades-long experience contesting elections. This included cases of selling meat at reduced prices to win support. However, the Muslim Brotherhood's campaign suffered after the movement was criticised for its failure to back last week's Tahrir Square protests.
The centre-right Wafd party launched a strong television advertising campaign based on its record in government in the 1940s. A new liberal party, the 'Free Egyptians', focused on street advertising to make themselves more well-known with voters.
Mubarak loyalists
Former members of Mubarak's National Democratic Party (NDP) are standing in today's poll after an earlier court ban was overruled. The Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) reintroduced the ban last week in an attempt to appease Tahrir Square protesters. The law strips those accused of corruption of their political rights for five years. However, any case would take months to progress through the court system, meaning that no former NDP member will be prevented from standing in the upcoming election on the basis of that law.
Security fears
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Security fears and a complex voting system could deter some voters
Last week's violence has added to the prevailing atmosphere of insecurity, and might deter some people from going to polling stations. Street violence has become relatively widespread following the January uprising, raising concerns over how peaceful the voting process will be. This is of particular concern in areas of Upper Egypt where security forces are less dominant, possession of arms among the population is more widespread and competition between local tribal over seats is fierce.
Sectarian tensions also remain an issue with further minor clashes occurring between Coptic protesters and security forces following a major outbreak of violence at a rally in Cairo early last month (see EGYPT: Coptic clashes escalate security crisis - October 13, 2011).
Coalition expectations
Recent opinion polls have put the Freedom and Justice Party, and the Wafd party in the lead. However, neither look set to obtain more than 30% of the vote, indicating that a coalition government remains the most likely outcome.
According to the polls, around 25% of the electorate remain undecided. Their votes could tip the balance if the majority of them decided to support one specific force. The Free Egyptians, for example, are polling between 10% and 15%.
Free elections
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The campaign has been free from government interference
One major difference between the current election campaign and those carried out under Mubarak's rule is the absence of government intervention in favour of a particular party. Most of the criticism of the authorities' handling of the campaign has instead centred on administrative inefficiencies and the interim government's timing of the release of the draft constitutional principles.
Administrative failings are likely to lead to a number of procedural problems on voting days, such as a lack of ballot papers or polling stations opening late, but they will not undermine the validity of the vote.
Another key change from previous parliamentary elections is the complex voting system. This has changed from a simple majority vote to a mixture of first-past-the-post and proportional representation. Voters will need to make three choices, selecting two individual candidates and one political grouping. This complexity might be reflected in a considerable number of invalid votes in a nation where illiteracy rate is close to 40% (see EGYPT: Election law sets up fractious campaign period - October 4, 2011).
