Yemen Without Saleh
The outlook for the Arab Spring
Tuesday June 7, 2011, 16.30 BST / 11.30 EDT
Yemen's President Ali Abdallah Saleh had resisted local, GCC and international demands to leave under an agreed transition plan, but his hand may now be forced as he receives medical treatment in Saudi Arabia. In the absence of a deal, there will be a showdown, possibly a civil war, between Saleh's son and nephews (who command his Praetorian Guards) and a coalition of opposition groups that includes part of the armed forces. There would then be growing chaos as local groups seize control of their area -- the Shia al-Huthi in the extreme north, and Salafis and secessionists in the south.
In this special Open Conference Call, Michael Crawford and Philip Mudd, Oxford Analytica's Senior Global Advisors, will bring their unmatched experience to bear in assessing the implications of the crisis in Yemen -- with a particular focus on the wider consequences for investors and policymakers.
They and other Oxford Analytica experts will address the key issues at stake, including:
- the role of al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula;
- the outlook for successor regimes in Yemen;
- the possibility of substantial GCC and Saudi economic support;
- what the crisis means for Saudi Arabia's regional clout; and
- where else the Arab Spring might take hold.
