The Impact of Pre-Salt
Petrobras
The Issue
Petrobras asked us to help promote a better understanding of the outlook for Brazil’s oil & gas sector, given the recent discoveries of substantial new reserves and the impact these would have on the country’s economy.
The Approach
We analysed the implications of these reserves for Brazil against a forecast for oil prices over the next 20 years. We also considered the risks and opportunities associated with the proposed legal framework for governing exploitation of the new reserves. A key element of the outlook was our assessment of Brazil’s own service and supply industry for the oil and gas sector.
The Result
Our study enabled Petrobras to raise awareness of the long-term prospects for the Brazilian oil and gas sector. Our analysis of how the sector is likely to change has also helped Petrobras to position itself as a thought leader in this area by presenting this assessment to targeted stakeholders -- most importantly those who participated in its 2010 rights issue, the largest ever rights issue to date.
Business Challenges 2011-2013
Ernst & Young
The Issue
Ernst & Young wanted to identify the leading global risks and opportunities for business across seven sectors.
The Approach
We drew on our global network of experts to survey 50 senior experts in economics, finance, science, energy, regulation, the environment and geopolitics. Each expert was asked to identify emerging strategic threats to business in general, before ranking the most critical risks in the key sectors under review. Our experts then worked with the firm’s executives to provide practical insights for risk management professionals, with the resulting report outlining best practice responses to critical business risks and opportunities.
The Result
The report – which has now become an annual publication -- attracts significant media attention and is used by Ernst & Young to raise awareness of its industry group services.
Mumbai 2020
A major financial institution
The Issue
A major financial institution contemplated relocating its regional headquarters to Mumbai.
The Approach
Our analysis explored the historical development of financial centres to identify the key factors for success before assessing Mumbai against other emerging financial centres in the region. We also included an in-depth analysis of the city’s financial sector and the economic framework within which it operates before providing the client with recommendations.
The Result
Following our assessment and recommendations, the client decided not to undertake an extensive relocation programme.
Prosperity Index
The Legatum Institute
The Issue
The Legatum Institute asked us to support a global assessment of the factors that make up perceptions of prosperity.
The Approach
We responded by delivering the first-ever prosperity index of states. The report that accompanies the index analyses determinants of long-term economic growth and subjective wellbeing in more than 100 countries by investigating drivers of economic competitiveness and comparative ‘liveability’ at different stages of development. We analysed more than 50 data series using sophisticated econometric techniques and added some pioneering research of our own. The report also presents the methodology underpinning the index and features essays on its findings by leading experts.
The Result
The index attracts notable media attention each year and has helped to lead the movement to assess and quantify prosperity.
Political Risk Index
Willis
The Issue
Willis, a global leader in the provision of political risk insurance, needed a means to monitor and demonstrate the extent of ongoing changes to the risk environment in a range of developing markets.
The Approach
We provide a tailored political risk index covering 40 emerging markets. Drawing on country experts from our network, the index provides an overall figure for each country that combines scoring for five risks: expropriation, political violence, terrorism, exchange transfer risk and sovereign default. The ongoing project, which updates the index several times a year, couples statistical research with qualitative analysis to produce a comprehensive risk assessment for each country.
The Result
The company now publishes the Willis Political Risk Index as a means of enhancing its brand among current and prospective clients.
