We help our clients identify, assess and monitor a wide range of risks, from political to reputational risk. Our risk methodologies are designed to leverage Oxford Analytica’s unique expert network to provide an objective, external perspective that enhances and strengthens your risk management systems.
Political Risk Index
Willis
The Issue
Willis, a global leader in the provision of political risk insurance, needed a means to monitor and demonstrate the extent of ongoing changes to the risk environment in a range of developing markets.
The Approach
We provide a tailored political risk index covering 40 emerging markets. Drawing on country experts from our network, the index provides an overall figure for each country that combines scoring for five risks: expropriation, political violence, terrorism, exchange transfer risk and sovereign default. The ongoing project, which updates the index several times a year, couples statistical research with qualitative analysis to produce a comprehensive risk assessment for each country.
The Result
The company now publishes the Willis Political Risk Index as a means of enhancing its brand among current and prospective clients.
Economic Risk Scenarios
A global financial services firm
The Issue
A global financial services firm sought input for a strategic realignment of its operations in the United Kingdom.
The Approach
We used interviews with an expert panel to identify possible risk factors for both the UK economy as a whole and for the regions and sectors in which the clients was particularly interested. Combining the results of these interviews with analysis of macroeconomic and sectoral data enabled us to provide a final set of risk factors with the potential to affect the client’s UK operations.
The Result
At the workshop to present the report, we demonstrated how these risk factors could be matched with an appropriate early warning mechanism to alert the client to a rise in the risk of negative developments.
Corporate Risk Management in the BRICs
A global professional services firm
The Issue
A leading professional services firm wanted a comparative report on how managers in the BRIC countries perceive corporate risk.
The Approach
We provided four papers that analysed raw survey data gathered during interviews with corporate executives working for BRIC-based subsidiaries of American and European parent companies. Our assessment revealed the differences in risk perception between managers in different countries and between regional offices and corporate headquarters.
The Result
The client used the resulting white papers to illuminate the gap in perceptions between parent and subsidiary companies and to raise awareness of its risk mitigation services.
Overview of Iraqi Kurdistan
A global professional services firm
The Issue
A professional services firm wanted to expand its business into Iraqi Kurdistan.
The Approach
We provided a study which analysed Kurdish politics, including relations between the Kurdish Regional Government and the federal government in Baghdad, as well as disputed internal territories, inter-ethnic relations, relations with Turkey and Iran, and the Kurdish economy. The study also included key points on Kurdish business culture.
The Result
Our assessment informed the investment decisions of the company’s regional management team and their choice of local partners.
Risk Monitoring Service: Eastern & Southern Africa
An international aid organisation
The Issue
A major international aid organisation needed to identify and evaluate political and socioeconomic trends and developments in 19 African countries in order to prevent and respond to potential humanitarian emergencies.
The Approach
We provided the client with bi-annual reports on four main regions: the Horn of Africa, the Great Lakes, eastern Africa and the Indian Ocean, and Southern Africa. Each report included analysis of recent events, the identification of future trends and uncertainties, and provided primary and best-case scenarios for the future.
The Result
The reports assisted the client in considering future risks in Eastern and Southern Africa and preparing humanitarian responses. The study was a factor in the client’s choices about the positioning of personnel and resources, and also created an interest in early warning techniques.
Key Sector Outlooks
A leading financial institution
The Issue
A leading financial services group asked us to assess the medium-term risk outlook for four key economic sectors: oil & gas, metals & mining, infrastructure and telecoms.
The Approach
For each of these sectors, we used qualitative and quantitative evidence to produce a series of interlinked studies which provided an overview of demand and supply drivers as well as developing trends; a global outlook; a special focus on several regional areas of particular interest to the client; and an assessment of key operational and political risks. The analysis used both qualitative and quantitative evidence. The service included two quarterly updates to monitor the trends and risks identified in the original reports.
The Result
The reports were fed into the financial institution's risk department, helping the firm to make informed decisions on risk mitigation.
