WEF Report highlights new Middle East opportunities

Although the Arab Spring has decisively broken the regional status quo, a new equilibrium has yet to emerge. According to this month's report of the World Economic Forum's Global Agenda Council (GAC) on Geopolitical Risk, new roles for regional players are emerging, as well as strategic opportunities for the US and Europe.

"Established players have seen their roles change dramatically," the report announces. "In a context where new actors have the capacity to make an impact, big players like the US and Europe become policy takers rather than policy makers on key issues." Despite this, there are new opportunities for Europe and the United States.

Nader Mousavizadeh, Chief Executive Officer of Oxford Analytica and member of the Council, says: "The economic imbalances that once drove the Arab uprisings may soon become the impetus for forging new ties between key European players and the Middle East via strategic open trade agreements."

The report identifies key opportunities:

  • for Saudi Arabia to be the driver of leadership and oil talks in the Middle East
  • for Egypt to broker a reconciliation deal between Palestinian factions Hamas and Fatah
  • for regional monarchies such as Morocco and Jordan to join the Gulf bloc
  • for Turkey to stand as a political model to Arab reformists
  • for individual powers like France, Italy and the UK to act as counter-balances to the US in Middle Eastern governments
  • for open trade agreements to increase European influence in the Middle East

    • There are however potential events that could generate severe and significant shocks in the region, including a potential reversion to revolution in Egypt, further regime collapse in Syria, or possible military confrontation between Turkey and Israel.

    Ian Bremmer, vice chair of the GAC on Geopolitical Risk and president of Eurasia Group, says, "As the world's most renowned thought leaders gather at the World Economic Forum's Summit on the Global Agenda in Abu Dhabi, we find ourselves at a crossroads in Middle Eastern history. While the US and Europe have reduced capacity and willingness to shape events in the Middle East, they are nonetheless drawn into the region's developments unlike ever before."

    Part of the World Economic Forum's Network of Global Agenda Councils, the Global Agenda Council on Geopolitical Risk is comprised of thought leaders from academia, government, business and other fields to capture the best knowledge in geopolitics and integrate it into global collaboration and decision-making processes.